美国新哥

新浪微博。 1。

2011-09-20T15:20:00.000-07:00

美国新哥：人不需要先知；一旦人需要，那就把自己当牛马，当奴隶了。自己是自己的主宰，自己是自己的先知。如果有上帝的话，定是孤独的，因为人们都跪在前面，求解救。站起来吧，平等地与人交流，不要跪下听先知的；一旦站起来，先知就在心里！

美国新哥：我思故我在，我行故我在。把上帝看成造物主，就是非我，非我的人，只要信上帝，进天堂。自我的人，要干一点事情。可以为自己的错进地狱。如果有上帝，他一定是个不显示自己的。在有上帝的证据之前，意志自我。

美国新哥：世界的神有不少：上帝、佛祖、真主，其它。都是唯我独尊的。当你我死之时，站错队的人，比不站队的人，更让“真神”震怒。有可能大家都错了，“其它"才是真的。还有一个可能，那就是没神。在没看清之前，不用站队。如果你看清了，让我知道。


: 美国新哥：每个人都是虚荣的，特别是当你听到了所谓知音的溢美之词。首先，是真知音吗？其次，真心话吗？人，要能够独立，不要人的认同，干自己的事，就不枉活一生。有谁，能像原宪那样，自然地说出：“是贫，非病”的话呢？

美国新哥：剑不够长，要向前大迈一步。为何这世界上，容易做的大事全被别人做了，抡到我了，全是吃力不讨好的事？还是太笨太懒，太容易被欺骗了。
转发| 取消收藏| 评论 5月4日22:03来自新浪微博

美国新哥：有时，绝地逢生和惨败，只差一念。大师级的，没有“绝地逢生和惨败“的辉煌，但终成大事，这种”钝刀“和”厚实“的棋风，需更多的智慧和discipline。常处危险，难免出事。但有时，临剧变，必须有一点豪气。朱棣在燕京以八百家兵起事，李世民玄武之变，都是例子。
转发(1)| 取消收藏| 评论 5月19日16:54来自新浪微博

美国新哥：刚才百度一下，才知木心。琼美卡随想录，感到一种莫名的煎熬和挣扎，每个字和句子都认识，放在一起，就不明白了。我的话，可以再冷涩一些，让人连感觉都没有，名家，少年少女，蜂拥而来，那才妙！不过，要有文字的美，好的间隔，不然，被人骂倒，骗是骗不成的。

美国新哥：历史总是以成败论英雄，输了，这不是那不是。其实，历史有极大的偶然性，黑天鹅事件，久了就会发生，很难预测。一旦发生，就有无数的精英，大师，哲人，会把不能解释的事，完美无缺地系统地园其说。成吉思汗们，只做不管理论，不要依据。
转发| 取消收藏| 评论 5月20日17:28来自新浪微博

美国新哥：成吉思汗是个异数，前无古人，后有来者，努尔哈赤。有时不明白，元，清，发迹，创建，都是逆历史潮流的事。落后小部落把大汉给灭了。或许，这种事以后还会发生，突变事件。
转发| 取消收藏| 评论 5月20日17:26来自新浪微博

Sold all, wait to enter new positions

2011-04-26T19:20:00.000-07:00

Targets:

SINA
SOHU
BIDU
OPEN
GOOG
AAPL
YHOO

Weibo in China

2011-04-12T12:59:00.000-07:00

Thesis:

China's internet market will grow, from 450 million users to 900 million users in 5 years. China's population is 1.4B. Note that users will be more than population, there will be groups, companies, schools, all registered as users. Just like email users will be more than population in U.S.
Weibo will likely be the next big thing in China, even in the world. It has more features than twitters, mixed with facebook, groupon, e-commerce, news, search, mini portal features. SINA is the best, far ahead of the pack.

From my experience with SINA weibo, Tencent Weibo and SOHU weibo, I found some interesting things:

I signed in successfully first time I used SINA's weibo, first time I used SOHU's weibo. I finally signed on with Tencent(qq.com)'s weibo today after 4th try, that itself tells me, Tencent ties it to qq, could give it a head start, but could limit its growth. Today, first time I experienced site down on Sohu's weibo site. So, this tells me SINA is the best so far.
Tecent claimed it has 100 millions users, and its top user has 14 million followers. Compared to SINA's 100 million users, and its top user has 7 million followers. I think qq automatically assigned new users to be a fan of the top users, which explains why it is 1 year late in the weibo development, still got a huge user base.
However, comparing to features, SINA is way ahead of tencent(qq.com) and SOHU. I rated SINA at least 2 generations(1 year) ahead of Tencent, 1.5 generations(9 months) ahead of SOHU. What surprised to me, they add new features almost each week. After played all three weibo sites, I think SINA has a such lead, it's impossible for them to lose the lead in 1 year.
Now the SINA's weibo, is a rich mixtures of facebook, twitter, groupon, e-commerce. I can see this easily could be the next big thing in Chinese internet, and my feeling is, if they keep this up, it's weibo will dominate the world social media in the future, the features are more than twitter and in some cases, more than facebook.
The danger, of course, they are bought by a bigger competitor, ruined by crowded market, or just managed badly in the future. So far, I think SINA's CEO is really focused on weibo and they do whatever it takes to make it to king of weibo in China.
SOHU is another story, it has no.2 and no.3, no.4 in lot of Chinese internet markets, it will benefit no matter which market is hot, as long as internet is the tool. Its value is the best comparing to SINA, BIDU, Tencent or Alibaba group.
SINA at 6.5B, SOHU at 3.5B, BIDU at 50B, Tencent at 45B, and Alibaba at 72B. Comparing to these numbers, I think SINA could easily be the next BIDU.

Take away:

Buy and hold SINA, it's a leader.
Buy and hold SOHU, it's the best value in this space.
Use extended period to reduce positions, use weakness to add positions.
Hold some core positions.

BIDU and FBOOK deal and impact

2011-04-11T06:09:00.000-07:00

News that BIDU and Facebook signed an agreement to develop SNS in China surfaced, date, approval are not clear yet. This morning pre-market, BIDU up $6 to 148, SINA down 4 to $115.

I think long term winner in weibo is SINA, unless prove otherwise, they have such lead, and it's hard for others to catch up.
Recent news from China about BIDU is not good, writers sued BIDU, one big corporation withdraw ad from BIDU, since BIDU charged 5 Million for key word, then sold for 10 Million to its 8 competitors, and this is the 3rd such instances in last 3 months.
GOOG failed in China, not because of technical issues, but because of the relationship with Chinese government. Facebook was banned in China. So, one can argue, the agreement with BIDU, might be good for SINA, SOHU in the long run, and bad for BIDU in the long run.
Facebook has pretty clean reputation so far, but lot of people already accused them of privacy violation; BIDU is the GOOG/Facebook kind of internet company in China, lot of Chinese are already tired of them, so this partnership, looks good on paper, may doom BIDU in the long run.
One needs to know, once you're a way ahead of yourself, might not have enough room to grow, that's the case for GOOG. Specially in China, it's not winner take all, people always like to compare to three bidders before buying, so I think the like of SINA and SOHU will do better than BIDU, from stock price perspective. SINA has 7B and SOHU has 3.7B. BIDU has 50B market cap.
Another issue, one of the most common translation of facebook in China is "非死不可”，means, "Has to die". That's just bad for facebook in China. If this name stays, or competitors continue to use it, I don't see how they can be successful.
Impacts: short term, good for BIDU, bad for SINA.
Long term winner will be SINA, SOHU, and even BIDU. It shows that, in order to do internet business in China, you have to partner with Chinese companies, therefore, they are more valuable!
I'll use the opportunities to build more SINA positions, and add SOHU as well.
I think BIDU, tencent, SINA, SOHU will capture most of Chinese internet traffic in the near future, with BIDU at 50B, tecent at 45B, I like SINA and SOHU, lot of potentials to grow.

Position updated

2011-04-07T13:37:00.000-07:00

Today SINA up 6 to 117, SOHU up 3 to 97.

SINA.
SOHU
naked SOHU puts when it's 92-93.
naked SINA puts when it's 108,109.
SOHU calls when it's 98, 95, 93.
SINA call when it's 105.

Yesterday and today, when SOHU and SINA was down, I only added small calls and added small naked puts. If I was brave, now I can take some off the table.

Buy leader, in this case, it's SINA. Buy value in Chinese social media stocks, in this case, SOHU.

Restart: position update

2011-04-05T20:48:00.000-07:00

Long:

SINA.
SOHU.
SINA calls. Small.
SOHU calls. Small.